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Come on in and see what DJIMSTOCKS.com is all about!.   This week only (April 21-25) with the market rallying and a flurry of earnings to be released, we are opening our member only site to the public to come and see what we've been trading day in and day out in 2008.   It's been the year of the commodity trade so far and we've been hot on its tail with our favorite Steel , Coal, Ag'Chemical stocks and anything that resembles a momentum sector/stock trade.  

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Believe it or not, DJIM has now been at it with the TraderJournal for a 1.5 years/ 5X a week.  As the year closes off, we wanted to especially thank all those who have stayed with DJIM since day one.     We hope all have enjoyed our journals, alerts-comments, and forum of DJIM as much as we've enjoyed providing them.  We'd also like to thank BT for keeping our plays updated with his chart work.  As the last journal of year 2007, we want to take this opportunity to look back on the past 12 months and as well as take a peak at what potentially lies ahead of us in 2008.   

We have to admit, that trading in 2007 has been a challenge.    It's a challenge not so in the sense that it was difficult to produce a profitable year.   It was a challenge because we have had back to back to back great years in 2006, 2005 and 2004.   In the beginning of 2007, expectations were high among the traders but the results did not come close to what we had in the previous years.    At least, that is the case with DJIM traders and many other traders we know.    This year has been dominated with volatility.   At the end of the year, you can say it was a trend less year.  Stocks moved up and down in an exaggerated fashion along with the indices.     The most difficult thing about the market this year is that no trend lasted for more than a few weeks at a time.     We were constantly battling a changing trend where you literally didn't know what to expect some days you walk up to your trading platform in the morning or after lunch.  A few things are clear though, we know the exact cause of this volatility, the sectors that are getting hurt the most, and we are still not through to start a new year.

Shanghai surprises, Housing bubbles, credit crunch, massive writedown, potential weak consumer demand, potential recession......    you can see what we have to deal with heading into 2008.

Ok lets go over a few things that have worked in 2007 that may give us the headstart in 2008.

Solars, many agree that this is the year of the energy stocks.    As oil price crept up to $100, alternative energy stocks have been benefiting the most.    To many traders, solar stocks are the reason their accounts are in black this year.    It's true that this group has ran up a lot but earning side of things  have been keeping up the pace.    At this point, we aren't about to give it the end of the run up prediction.   The key thing we are looking for is how some of the leaders in the group react to each others coming earning reports.    Yes,  this group can correct anytime now and they really should based on the way they have ran up.   So far, they haven't been able to crack the major trend line so we don't believe they would until something dramatically changes the whole group behaviour.

Earnings winners, other than the first few months of the year, the so called earnings winners from small cap land have been scarce, very scarce lately.    Many of the earning winners we noticed, however, come from the mid cap group where the action was the most fierce.   If this is the trend that continues into 2008, we are basically not going to argue with it and we'd put most of our effort into earnings plays from the mid caps.

BRIC plays, this is the area which has been shining on and off in 2007 and we think it'll continue this trend into 2008.    Lately, Russian plays have been very hot and we were pretty aggressive with them as you can tell from the number of mentions from nightly journals.   So far, we have just been playing MELI (Argentina- latin America)and PBR from Brazil and those two are currently enough exposure from that region for us.   In terms of China plays, we still have a bunch on our watchlist and we are just waiting for them to heat up again.  A pre- Olympic fever may come.  The year of the Rat is ahead of us and the "New kid on the Block' of 2007 in the trader/investing community should continue to provide trading opportunities.

Going into 2008, we expect a lot of "more of the same" attitude from the market participants.   We have a Fed meeting coming up, FOMC minutes January 2nd and busy weeks of earnings reports just ahead of us.   The dreaded Employment report comes this Friday and could be a spark either way.   Hopefully, most of us have relaxed enough in this holiday and we are back to focus on the busy trading in front of us.

Let's get it on!

It is true!.  Santa's sleigh and his reindeer, Jaso, Solf, Fisler, Sunfun, Evergreen etc are solar powered as they skidded off course.  Seems like the rest of the market they were sensitive to geopolitical tensions.  (All they probably did is stop to rest after being bloated with the treats they were left on Xmas eve).  At least, that is the main reason played out, but we saw it as having more to do with economy data and most of all the odds were against the NASD and RUT making it a 7th straight day of gains.   Reason being the European markets had plenty of time to react to the bloody violence, but still finished in the green as we saw mid day.   One way or another, we were due for a red day, the days news just made it bloody red.   The market should shrug yesterdays geopolitical risk quite quickly in our view.  If anything yesterday many stocks fell on low volume and there were more than a few bargains if your are bullish coming into earnings season. 

This time of the year is for traders as prices are manipulated up and down as the desks are away giving some hedgies and retailers run over the mid-small caps. There are still a few days left for many possibilities, so we'd stick to the game plan and the stocks we've been mentioning for days to concentrate on.  A few stocks of interest yesterday...

N,  this has shown all signs of a volatile small float IPO we have traded before.  This one could move fast as we saw Wednesday and yesterday it showed glimpses of wanting to move up again.  We'd keep a closer eye on it today.

WBD, MBT..we've noted the strength of Russian stocks in the recent months turmoil, yesterday these two showed resiliency compared to the rest and flirted with NCH's or made them again.  VIP, was due to a dip as noted because it was quite extended and is one stock that was one of those stocks that might have been a bargain yesterday. APEI was another.  Now that GLDN is a non issue, the 4th musketeer has ridden up and made new highs late in the day on big volume, ROS.  Chart, large volume should have popped on a few screens overnight.  This a state owned stock basically and yesterday Putin had a few words of comfort for these types of stocks, plus they announced a new CEO.  This might be back in the gap up mode.

So keep to the same mentality of using this time to 'make trades', the media geopolitical hype will make you think too much and the shorties will most likely play the sell before the weekend in case a nuke goes off.   This market has given plenty of reason to put on a helmet on in the recent past, this is not one of those times ...besides, it ain't gonna help, so just keep on trading..lol

The so called Christmas rally or the Santa Claus rally has been something of a mixed bag in the past.   There were years we just wished the Christmas season would last longer and there was last year which we all would like to forget.   This year, Santa is back to give us traders something to remember as of now.    This of course, is probably due to the fact that we had a very very tough fourth quarter coming into the Christmas holiday.     All of the problems we have had to endure as traders during the last while, from credit crunch, housing bubble and recession worry are being put behind this last few days of the year.    Put it this way, we won't deal with it until the new year.    It is about time that we can end this year in a rather peaceful way.

If it's peace you want, then you are glad to know that major indices have held up well and many big cap stocks have either inched up or stayed unchanged, in a non volatile way.    If you are like us who like to take advantage of this opportunistic time, then the only thing you'd be doing on a boxing day is buying and selling hot stocks online.     People, if you are serious in trading like us, then you would've tied yourself to your chair during the last few trading days.     These past few trading days have produced some of the best action since early October.    And if you were hurt by the downturn in the late November period, then now is the perfect time to get some respect back from this market.

Basically we are about half way over this holiday trading and we'd imagine most traders would be back in force after Jan 1st.    This gives us another 2 1/2 holiday trading days to do our thing.     Right now, we are playing stuff that are currently in play.    It is crucial that we stick to that theme for the next few days.

Solars, 2007 is the year of the solars and we think we'll carry some good momentum into the new year as well.    Today's action seemed to be spreading all over the smaller and less established solar players which include SOLF CSIQ CSUN ESLR CTDC etc., while the bigger names seemed to pause to catch some breath, with the exception of FSLR.      Yup, we are playing just about every single one of those smaller names today and we'd continue to play until the momentum stops.    Keep in mind, many if not most of those less established solar names are still not proven in terms of earning track record.    When some of these names reverse, it is crucial that you don't buy the dip thinking all solars are created equal and have awesome earnings growth.     Buying dips on plays like FSLR STP JASO SPWR... have good probability that they will come back in a hurry.   Buying dips on the smaller ones may get you into a situation that you'd lose another 30% before even seeing an uptick.   Bottom line, you have to know what you are playing distinguish the type of plays among solar names.

MELI, then there's this one!   If you cashed out last time after Cramer's mention, then today's the day to get it back.    We alerted early in the morning that it looked promising but we did not imagine it'd pull a move anywhere close to 20% today.    This one, unfortunately we have to agree with Cramer for once, has the marking of being a monster.     Yes, it can definitely go into triple digit based on what we have seen with other similar type of stocks.

Bottom line, there's no need to go nuts with all of the hot plays out there and just trade the ones you are most comfortable with.   Stay focused and stay clear headed, and we may just finish this year on a high note.

...with FTSE, DAX, HANG, TSX all on holidays??... Guess we're here tracking Santa's historical path of possibly bringing that overblown post Xmas-to New year rally!.   Fortunately, if you've 'not' been sitting on your hands, you shouldn't care too much about the next few days or need to be foolish in and get ( buy) something else you don't need for Xmas.  We've already had a rally in the stocks closely followed here the past week or so.   Monday was no exception.  Wouldn't it be great if all trading days would be 3.5 hrs long, major indices doing a +99/+21/+12 and your stocks running on all cylinders!.  Guess if that was the case, we'd all still believe in Santa Claus!.   Let's get on to the 'Stocking Stuffers' that might've made that hideous Cosby sweater you got Christmas morning look not so bad after all!

Solars..SPWR FSLR STP JASO....SOLF CSIQ  EMKR ESLR LDK...This is not 6 geese a laying, this is 9 ladies a dancing!.  Following LDK margin shrinking report it was noted we'd be looking for a dip if it happened in this sector to do some possible buying.  Hardly any dipped and instead just coattailed first out the door on RIMM's big day .   This group did not disappoint Friday or Monday as set ups, NCH were abundant.  Clearly this is where we want to stay and ignore the suffering in the groups like shippers, china stocks.  Now..if the hedgies want to pump their book for this end of the year Q, we just might see another sector wake up..so keep eyes a movin'.

Russian stocks...VIP MBT WBD, this group has followed our blueprint here for the past week and more.  The GLDN deal has been a definite positive for VIP's share price (37's-45) as we thought, not often you see the acquirer get such a reaction and we think this can go further. Low 50's, but not after a pullback of small sorts as the last 3 days have left it a bit extended.   MBT, we were 'eyeing it back to recent highs' and we got that as it hit $100 Monday.  Again, we'd use any pullback as a possible buy in.   If the volume comes in this, we'd saddle up as the chart looks very good.  WBD has been in a tight narrow range and with a little volume could spark again with another move upwards.  The float, spreads are ideal for a low volume move in Xmas trading week.

APEI, LRN, N... last week we said these may be ideal for light trading days ahead.  A sign of it was present in APEI as about 60K pushed it to a NCH with 4 pts in tow.   We will continue to keep focused on these IPO's.   Due to these IPOs stellar opening days, a sentiment change in the markets make for a perfect combo and so we have our eyes set on "N" , Netsuite.   If the market tone continues to stay this way, it makes the possibility of N performing well greater.  This new issue has some color!.   It did a Dutch auction for pricing the stock which might have kept the flippers of a quick buck away.   It also has color because of the money behind it in ORCL's Larry Ellison and a management team of former ORCL heads.  This brings in interest from more traders or just investors with a fondness for ORCL or tech.  If you're a Baseball junkie, you'll like or actually maybe not like that Oakland A's Billy Beane is there on the BOD to crunch the numbers and use their software..lol.  The market cap might be big, but with the available float as it stands now make it interesting in the short term.  It just seems sexy, especially following VMW success. We'll see...

Reminder

Reminder to our original members signed up for 3 month subscriptions that many subscriptions expire Dec.31st.  Please check your Paypal receipts or your Paypal account, last day is before your last payment date.  Last resort;).. contact us for date.  Those that usually pay in advance, your subscription will run till end of March. 

Thanks and hope to see you back for the start of another year together..

The truth is, when calling for an overall market direction, technical analysis alone is just not enough.    This market has been volatile and it's been difficult calling a one way action for both the bulls and bears.    We have definitely been in a zigzagging mode during the past few weeks.  Since the late November rally, you can say we've been stuck in a pretty big trading range with some wild swings both ways.    Fortunately, we think we may be near a point where we can finally get some meaningful action going.  At this point we are getting what we wanted last week despite the market looking technically troubled at that stage.... .."...the only reasons not to abandon the market is the fact(s),  we are waiting for earnings, hopefully to spark the market, the seasonal factor to move the market up and the fact volume is low on this sell off, which also allows for opportunity for a sizeable swing(s) to the upside on the same low volume.    Let's add one more and that is the proverbial bounce possibility now. Santa has enough things in his sleigh to run over the Bears still, but he needs help from companies announcing earnings this week first.".......    We are not being the overly optimistic bulls as caution is still needed.  We are simply going to be watching events, especially earnings closely that may shape up the trading action for the next little while.     Friday's option expiration pop may seem a little suspicious,  but it can also be said that we could've very well gone the other way not really knowing the expectation the day before.    Fact is, the market rose in a very healthy percentage and now we have to deal with what the possible scenario that may lie ahead of us.

In our opinion, the market is ready to cheer for some good news.    We now know what this market is capable of when good news is put in front of it.   Basically there was couple of key events, an earning report from RIMM, a back to back with ORCL, and news of possible foreign cash infusion into MER.   Big techs had strong positive reaction and financials also traded well.     We have been saying this for a while that in order for this market to gain any upside momentum, we need companies to deliver earnings that show no slowdown in growth and no signs of recession.   Also, financials need to go up on headlines, good or bad ones, or at least stay steady on the bad stuff.   MS/ BSC trading firmed up despite the expected blow ups during the week.

The coming week is a short trading week and we have just 3 1/2 trading days to deal with.    While we can assume that many traders have taken the week off to spend time with the families, we believe some traders may be taking advantage of the light volume holiday week to push some stocks around.     We are looking at none other than the solar sector and any other stocks made the recent headline in a good way.  The ones that have made the recent 52 week high are also high on our trading list.

A rundown here with solar stocks that include STP FSLR JASO SOLF CSIQ, popular stocks include AAPL RIMM MA,  Russian stocks like MBT WBD VIP, and recent additions include RSTI LRN APEI are all on our top trading list.

We definitely had a pretty turbulent year but we can still end the year on a high note.   Stay with the best performing plays because those may be the ones to get us off to a good start in the new year. 

As we said above technical analysis is not enough, but with the DJIA and NASD closing at 13450 and 2691 respectively, we are getting more comfortable with the market.   Last week in weekend charts, we noted"..The DJIA /NASD are below our comfort levels of 13500 and 2700 respectively, but since volume is expected to whittle down in the coming days... anything is possible.  This includes big upside days that can easily get us to the levels noted and away from 13300....".   Anything was possible as Santa seems to have gased up and we should move over the above levels into the New Year.  Another possible positive technical scenario and a possible Bear stinger is the action in the small cap RUT, IWM as the down trendline from September might be busted shortly.  The Bears might have a lack of blueberries to fuel on if we cross here.  We are possibly entering the seasonal small cap outperformance of large caps into the month of January, this is probably coinciding perfectly with a break to be over the trendline noted. 

A Merry Christmas to our DJIM friends and your families!

The erratic trading continued most of the day as the market chewed on anything and everything.  Included was the expected Bear Stearns debacle, the FDX earnings and the ORCL strong report and a few Eco numbers.  Stir'em up and you get more of the same as far as the trading environment is concerned this week on lighter volume.  This means early firm action, a loss of momentum mid day and then a modest rally late in the day.  What you simply have is the financials finding a way to put a drag on the market and the half ass end of year rally the market wants.  You can see this loud and clear as the NASD/RUT were making new highs for the week while the DJIA/SPX lagged behind...but this should change as the natural thing to do is play catch up and close the gap, especially since RIMM will lead the NASD pack early on.  This could provide a better technical picture for the lagging indices come next week, even if the financials don't want to help out.  The premise here the past week was the importance of earnings coming out and being a catalyst.  This round of reports won't take us out of the cold in respect to the 'big picture' of where the market is going, but what it does is... give us all hope that is we will have something to look forward to in January as the official earnings season kicks off.  The reason is RIMM showed something we haven't seen in ages and that is a post earnings run, herd reaction and not the usual sell off.   Unfortunately, the report falls on quad witching Friday to cloud the picture.  Throw in the holiday trading aspect this Friday and we won't get a true feel for where RIMM is going just yet...up or down from today's action.   If you didn't flip it around AH's yesterday or are looking to sell early today, we'd then take a cautious stance today at this $120+ price.   This also holds true for other stocks as well, we are unlikely to chase new plays today unless a whole sector,  such as the Solars want to take the lead.  No Rush today, let's see how it all materializes later in the day.    In the meantime, we'll continue to trade and watch for further setups from what we have concentrated this week on and that is the WBD LRN VIP MBT etc. 

Let's hope the ORCL/RIMM reports start to get the talking heads in pre-earnings mode and have some attention turn away from the subprime mess and on to earnings.   This mess ain't going away for years and we need to move on. 

Despite what at times felt like a volatile day, it came on the expected diminishing holiday volume and therefore some intraday expected yo-yo swings occurred on the indices.  At the end, the action is firmer for the last 2 days and unless the down swings are on a bad headline with volume, it is best to stick it out with some positions and look forward to the XMAS shortened week and a possible rally of sorts.  A few things occuring the past few days are indicative of a whacked out market, this is best shown in the different reactions to GS strong earnings and MS's blow up.  But this could be good news.  Possibly the best thing is bad news from the financials may be getting priced in on some stocks and confidence is climbing that the firms are finally throwing everything out including the kitchen sink and coming clean.   Now only..if the market can shake the ugly numbers from BSC due out and we'll have a clearer picture as to where we are going.   It's confession time for all these boys.    We've attached the importance of earnings this week to possibly set or at least curtail the latest slide, last night Oracle reported a big quarter on all fronts. This includes getting it finally right on what is usually their very so-so Q year after year.  Is this a forward to what we may expect from more tech firms ahead or is it just a anomaly of sorts?.  It does bring a potential boost today to techs, but this might be short lived as RIMM reports AH.  Let's hope RIMM makes it back to back, other wise this Oracle number will be forgotten quickly.  In the meantime today,  FDX , BSC, ORCL can lead the way in 3 essential  areas to a very big day....let's wait and see.

LRN,  if you took your eye off K12 yesterday, you found a surprise on your next look as it probably jumped another $1 or more.  We said this might see high 20's if it just got some volume.  Guess what....it didn't need it as hit $30 and up almost 50% since we alerted the buy in the first hour of it's debut last week.  Only regret and you could blame the weak market last week is we didnt go crazy into it.             Ah..the great trader/investor motto...could've..should've..would've!.  lol..    A pullback would be great as its up 50% from its opening price, but it just might be getting discovered so its best to watch the volume as a pullback might not be so swift for your first entry or a re-entry.   We've taken most off the table and will look for the re-entry, in the meantime we dipped into APEI after it passed it's initiation day with a few nice buy targets.  You can only dip as this is trading lightly and has only a 4.5 mln float.   With all the messes out there lately, we think these educational online plays are under radar.   Actually, they are the perfect stocks for a holiday buying frenzy if the manipulators want to drive a stock or two higher next week as in years past.

WBD, another recent buy in alert after earnings. This followed what we outlined here the past week quite well, it did look right the day before at 121 in a market where nothing was looking right and it hurled $124 for another entry before ticking up to 130.  A nice run and it did hold up well, but as we've repeated over and over lately....take what a stock gives you and walk away. In this case it was more than enough.  We'll look for re-entry here as well.  The volume has not come in yet as it has in the past on runs and so we'll look for it with a break over yesterdays high levels.

MBT,  we've been spreading out our risk lately and this means using foreign ADR plays (VIP,WBD as well), in specific regions like Russia. MBT, looked very strong yesterday and it held its break of the recent channel top.  This one can move fast and we are eyeing it back to recent highs.

MA, really beaten up the last few days on the Euro ruling for months and months to come.  In the near term this should affect MA's profits as it does not cover the majority (over 90%)  of MA's volume. Ma should get back on track after all this noise is digested.

Solars,  LDK guided EPS in-line, a downgrade and what you might have is some pressure on solars.  We'd use any negative reaction spreading to take advantage of the dips in the usual suspects.  These plays are not going away by a longshot in the short term.

While last month the market was dragged down by subprime woes, this time it's dragged down by fear of recession and inflation.   Basically, bears aren't ready to press the "we are done" button and leave this market in peace.   Some of the worries that have been pointed out in the media, during the last few days, are nothing but worries, at this point.    We feel that even though there's a possibility of recession, it won't be likely known for a while, and pricing the market assuming there's a recession on the way may not be the smartest thing to do.   We definitely need further evidence before jumping into such a conclusion.

However, it's enough to cause jitters among the market participants and the technical picture isn't good at this moment.    Basically, whatever the upside momentum we had prior to the Fed announcement is no longer there anymore,the market got rolled over.    We have broken some short term support and today's pop is just to get off the recent oversold condition.     As a matter of fact,  Q's almost reached November low intraday.   SPX isn't quite at the November low yet but we feel the probability of testing it has increased substantially.    Unfortunately, any testing of markets recent low's will probably be pushed into January of the coming year.    Can this negative momentum be stopped still?   We think it's possible but it pretty much has to rely on two things.    One, the financials have to stop going down and react positively to news (good and bad).   Two, some of the key companies have to come through during this earning quarter.   They have to demonstrate that not only there's no hint of a global slowdown, everything is still firing on all cylinders on the growth front.    Make people believers!     With those two things in place, we can probably come out of this downturn and establish a rally which we've been long wishing for.     As you can see, we still have a few weeks before we know for sure where this market wants to take us.

In the meantime, there are still short term trades that can be played among many of the familiar ones.     Solars, we'd continue to trade this sector aggressively and we'll stay this way until the next round of earning reports.    We'd try to buy more often on the dip these days as oppose to chasing the breakouts.     FSLR had a really nice bounce off yesterday's selloff.    LDK is inching up ahead of the 3rd q earing report Wednesday.  As far as CSIQ goes, someone just lit a fire underneath it midday.  EMKR, is also in the secondary solar loop now since announcing a contract last week.

Some of the foreign stocks also did well, especially WBD, a buyer was definitely present as any sizeable lot was taken out pushing to highs of day. Remeber this one is volatile, but usually worth the headache (look for possible interest to come in $124 area for further upside as noted before). VIP, MBT came out with subscriber metrics yesterday and are hitting on all cyclinders.  If the GLDN combination occurs this is a definite positive to VIP and its share price as well.  We'd continuing to trade these as there is less exposure to the problems here.

The bottom line, we have to differentiate the overall market direction from the individual trading opportunity.   It means that although the market trend is uncertain or downward biased,  we can still find good setups still for short term trading.    The key is to stay flexible and be ready to sell when things don't go your way.    The end trading result may not be like holding small cap eps winners in the past, but it is a way of survival in this particularly difficult trading environment.